NASA admits it needs 22 rocket flights for the Moon
A new internal estimate suggests the lunar landing mission requires significantly more fuel transport trips than previously expected.
By Wei Zhang ·
NASA has finally let the cat out of the bag regarding a critical metric for the Artemis program. The agency now believes it needs 22 separate Starship launches to support a single crewed Moon landing. This figure was shared during a recent safety panel meeting, marking a shift from the agency's previous silence on the matter.
The number 22 represents the count of rocket flights required to deliver fuel to a tanker in low-Earth orbit. This depot must be fully loaded with liquid oxygen and methane propellant before it can travel to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit. This specific calculation has been a closely guarded secret for years, treated with a level of caution usually reserved for nuclear codes.
The estimate has fluctuated over time. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told reporters that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to specify. She later described the range as high single digits to low double digits, implying roughly a dozen launches. Other officials have cited figures in the high teens. The new estimate of 22 pushes the requirement significantly higher than these earlier rough guesses.
The people driving this change include Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut and member of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel. He presented these risks at the panel's quarterly meeting on Thursday. His remarks highlight growing concerns within the agency about the timeline. Officials worry that SpaceX may not improve the lift capacity of the Starship rocket fast enough to reduce the number of tanker flights needed this decade.
The stakes are high for the Artemis program. NASA aims to return humans to the Moon within this decade. If the number of required launches remains at 22, the logistical burden on SpaceX increases dramatically. The agency had hoped for a dramatic improvement in rocket performance to lower the count. Without that progress, the schedule for sending astronauts to the lunar surface faces significant pressure.
This development underscores the complexity of the mission. It is not just about building one big rocket. It involves a complex dance of multiple vehicles working in concert in orbit. The shift from a vague estimate to a specific number of 22 provides a clearer, albeit more demanding, picture of what is required. NASA is no longer hiding behind uncertainty, and the path to the Moon now has a precise, high-cost fuel requirement attached to it.
Source: Ars Technica
